"Possibly Deceased" Discussion

I'm bored and home alone atm so. I thought it'd be fun to go through the "Possibly Deceased" category and list what I think happened to each of the characters in them. While I'll go alphabetically for the most part, I do have some category divisions for characters who are all in a group. Please share your opinions and thoughts in the comments!

Solo[]

Mr. Bellerophon - almost definitely deceased. While most of the children of Stain'd-by-the-Sea were abandoned, Snicket seems certain that Pip and Squeak's father is "gone forever." Also considering their first cover story was that he was sick, it's likely that he died of illness, and Pip and Squeak don't want to admit to being orphans. Considering how the Snicketverse foster system works, I don't blame them.
Bertrand Baudelaire's Cousin and Monty Montgomery's Sister - up in the air; as we know from The Vile Village, several Baudelaire relatives passed on guardianship due to fears of Count Olaf. I also follow the theory that VFD interfered with Poe's selection of guardians, meaning that the two of them would not be considered if they were not part of VFD. Questionable.
Bruce - likely deceased. Even if he survived the capture by the firestarters and was the Bruce at Hotel Denouement- unlikely, considering the firestarters wouldn't just let him go easily, as he could report the kidnapped children- he doesn't have a good track record of listening to the Baudelaires, so he could have perished in the Hotel Denouement fire.
Elwyn - As mentioned earlier, several Baudelaire relatives passed on guardianship due to fears of Count Olaf, and it's probable that VFD interfered with the guardian selection. So while his fate could be ambiguous, considering he is only mentioned once, and not once do the Baudelaires mention him still being alive or able to look for them, he is likely deceased.
Ms. Gracq - almost definitely deceased. While most of the children of Stain'd-by-the-Sea were abandoned, Marguerite readily admits to her father being out of town. And considering she left behind her "precious" portraits, something she'd want to take with her if she left, it's more likely she is dead and Marguerite just didn't see fit to mention it to Snicket.
White-Faced Women - I am completely neutral on them- Snicket never found them again, but then again, people seem to be pretty good at avoiding Snicket, so...

Hotel Denouement Fire []

The only known survivor of the fire is Mrs. Bass, who is said to have later been arrested for bank robbery.

As for the others, a good meta on this fire was made by lemonysnidget on tumblr, in which they point out three things -

The fire would not be very fierce considering the kindling, so it would be burning slowly. The Baudelaires reach the top of the hotel within an hour, and they see some people have escaped- however,
Seeing as an hour has passed and several people were on higher floors, it is impossible that there were no casualties.
Those who could have escaped would have had to believe the Baudelaires quickly enough to exit the hotel or been close enough to the ground to jump, or been likely to be able to escape while blindfolded, or likely to remove their blindfolds anyway.

Most of my info comes from their very sweet meta you should check out, but for a tl;dr -

Charles and Sir - Sir is almost definitely dead. He was on a high floor and busy arguing with Charles, too busy to listen to the Baudelaires even if he wanted to. Unfortunately, Charles in book!canon is likely dead as well, as he was holding hands with Sir at the time. Unless he decided to save himself over his partner last minute, he probably stayed with Sir til the end.
Colette, Hugo and Kevin - almost definitely dead. They were on a high floor, busy arguing with each other, and more likely to believe Olaf over the Baudelaires.
Ernest and Frank Denouement - almost definitely alive. While they were blindfolded, they were on the first floor of their own hotel, one they likely know the layout of incredibly well, and were on the first floor, meaning they'd be among the first to smell smoke.
Hal - the last we see of Hal, he is at the trial, proclaiming the Baudelaires innocent. We do not hear about him on any other floors, so we can assume his last known whereabouts are on the first floor. Due to how close he'd be to the door and how he seems to whole-heartedly believe the Baudelaires again, despite his poor eyesight, he probably survived.
Geraldine Julienne - Was on higher than the third floor, and never believes the Baudelaires. She believes whatever she hears from adults, so she's probably dead.
Mr. Lesko and Mrs. Morrow - probably deceased. They were mentioned on high floors, and do not have a good track record of listening to the children.
Man with a Beard but No Hair and Woman with Hair but No Beard - almost definitely alive. The Sinister Duo knew and believed there was a fire, and were on the first floor. They likely escaped as soon as there was enough chaos for them to walk out the doors.
Arthur Poe - It is said in an earlier chapter than "it was not [Poe's] destiny to be slain by a harpoon, at least not on this particular evening." This makes it likely that this was his eventual fate- death by harpoon. Meaning he likely escaped the fire. Conclusion, He probably survived the fire, but died later by harpoon.
Mr. Remora and Vice Principal Nero - The two of them were notably separated from Mrs. Bass, who we know survived. As well as this, they were on the seventh floor, and Nero never believes the Baudelaires over Olaf. Considering Remora is very easily persuaded to Nero's side ("you're the boss"), the two of them probably died.
Esmé Squalor and Carmelita Spats - It could be easy to believe they are both deceased, as it is said the Baudelaires never argued with them again. However, some things to note- Carmelita is constantly insisting that they take their blindfolds off, meaning it wouldn't take much for her to do so, and the two of them were on the second floor, close to the ground. All it would take would be for her to smell smoke, hear an alarm, or overhear other evacuees, and she'd be out of there. So Carmelita is probably alive. As for Esmé, while it's probable she'd stay to look for the Sugar Bowl, Snicket seems to suspect she survived (see his suspicion of "E" in The Beatrice Letters, ten years after the fire), and it isn't hard to believe Carmelita could have brought her out. While it's pretty much left up in the air, Esmé is more likely to have survived than not.
Jerome Squalor - while Jerome was blindfolded, he has expressed belieff in the Baudelaires numerous times. And as he was on the first floor, and would be among the first to smell smoke, he's likely alive.
Justice Strauss - while she is alive in the Netflix series, in the books she is probably deceased. She would not leave the scene of a crime, and was at the top of the hotel while it was on fire- and as anyone will tell you, burning buildings are likely to collapse. Even if we assume the elevator was still working, she would probably have no time to leave even if she wanted to.

Queequeg Crash[]

I have an unpopular opinion on this one; I believe that most, if not all of the members of the Queequeg crash survived. And this isn't just because I love the Quagmires and Fiona... I have evidence!

You see, we know that most of Snicket's knowledge of the Baudelaires' thoughts, feelings and situations were taken from their island commonplace book - A Series of Unfortunate Events- as he mentions them writing in the book. However, they could not write information they were not privy to, and all they knew about the Queequeg crash was that Kit suspected everyone was eaten by the Great Unknown.

However, in an earlier portion of The End, when the Baudelaires are traveling to the arboretum, Snicket says that their friends (the Quagmires, Fiona probably) were "in circumstances just as dark although quite a bit damper than" theirs. "Just as dark" does not qualify death at the moment, as the Baudelaires are simply under a moral quandary and the Medusoid Mycelium has not been released yet. As well as this, they would not know if their friends were in a "damp" situation, just a "dark" one. And who would know better what situation they were in at that time than the Quagmires themselves?

As such, Snicket likely knows something we don't. As well as this, we know Kit's story doesn't always align with the truth- she claims all three Widdershins were on the Queequeg when it crashed, however Snicket stated in The Penultimate Peril that Fernald was fighting the Quagmires aboard the ship (not necessarily implicating Fernald in villainy, it's likely Duncan and Isadora just saw him and heard the kill bill sirens).

Why would he leave their fate ambiguous? Well, considering several villains survived the Hotel Denouement (as discussed earlier), and many of them are stated to have something against the Quagmires (the Woman and Man send their eagles to sink the SSHAM home, and Esmé was in charge of their estate and helped Olaf capture them), it's likely the Quagmires want to stay as under their enemies' radar as possible.

Adding to this, they could be trying to stay off the radar of VFD itself; VFD does not have a crystal-clear reputation, and in fact seems to have a dangerous cult-like atmosphere (best description here, but also see here, here, here). And seeing as Fernald is very disillusioned with the organization, now an enemy of both sides, he would definitely not want to be seen by them; adding to this Fiona's loyalty to him and the beginnings of her break with the organization in The Grim Grotto, she'd probably want to lay low as well.

Duncan and Isadora also, probably, very against VFD. They found out something about it while researching, and after being captured by Olaf and the White-Faced Women, they shout to the Baudelaires that they learned about something terrible- which they immediately follow up by shouting about VFD. And considering how useless the volunteers were in rescuing them, and how they spent a lot of time with Hector, who seems to have either left the organization or be hiding from them, they almost definitely do not have a good view of it. Even though Quigley was p much successfully inducted by Jacques, he's not going to want to leave his siblings so soon after their reunion.

All that to say, at the very least, everyone but Widdershins has good reasons to want VFD to leave them alone. So throwing out that they're alive would be dangerous for them, especially if Snicket mentioned they'd contacted him. So he likely gave some clues and left it ambiguous so as to not completely lie.

As to how they survived? I've linked to snicketsleuth on tumblr a lot but they have a pretty good idea...

tl;dr the Queequeg and SSHAMH crews are probably alive!

Islanders[]

So. I'm gonna backtrack a bit.

In the above section, I said that anything the Baudelaires do not know that was included in the books must have been found out through other means. And if there's a group of people who could have died, but Snicket knows something about what happens to them, at least one of them must have survived to be a witness to recount to Snicket what happened.

There is something else in The End that is mentioned that the Baudelaires don't know- what happened to Inky. Snicket implies that Inky may have been able to save islanders by taking an apple to the boat. Snicket even says that they didn't notice the snake was gone until it was too late to find out what happened. Snicket wouldn't have known about the apple-taking unless someone told that to him.

Another thing- we know that the bodies of the Islanders would have infected more of the world if they reached shore without anything diluting the poison either pre- or post-mortem, considering how fast that fungus spreads. The Beatrice Letters from Bea II don't seem to mention anything about, you know, a world-shattering pandemic (sitting in my room during covid19, im jealous), so we can assume that even if islanders died of the Mycelium, someone must have been alive to dilute the poison afterwards- shoving a bit of an apple into their mouths should work.

We know Ishmael was not affected by the poison, so that's a possibility- however, he also refused to admit the apples were the cure, and would likely take nothing from Inky, who he knew to be friends with the entire Baudelaire family. So he probably wouldn't be able to dilute the poison- also, why would he later tell Snicket the snake came?

Someone did know and trust the snake on the boat, though- Friday.

There's other evidence that Friday would have taken the apple, other than her knowing the snake to be harmless and friendly- she is definitely free-spirited and more inclined to listen to the Baudelaires, and she seems way less drugged than the other islanders. She's the only one of the colony, in the final chapter, to show any kind of emotion- fear- as the others have drunk too much cordial to think for themselves anymore. That's even shown with Finn and Erewhon, being too drugged to question Ishmael when they were the ones who pretty much wanted him dead. Considering Friday thus is able to communicate her fear and tell the Baudelaires she's sorry, she either didn't drink as much cordial or drank none at all.

So, in recap:

Friday, unlike the other islanders, is not drunk on cordial.
Friday has previously met and befriended Inky, so she would trust him.
Friday is more inclined to trust the Baudelaires than everyone else.
Friday has previously expressed doubt in Ishmael's rule and shown rebelliousness in learning how to read and wishing to leave.

Combine that together? It is way more likely than not that Friday, upon seeing the snake with the apple, would take at least one bite- which is enough to dilute the poison.

All the other islanders, though? Unfortunately, in their drugged state, it's unlikely they'd listen even to Friday- especially Miranda, who is fanatically loyal to Ishmael, to the point where she endangered her daughter's life just so the lies Ishmael told her to tell wouldn't come to light.

Of course, if they were the only two left, it's anyone's gamble what could happen- an old man and a seven-year-old don't pose much threat to each other. Friday likely was able to dilute the poison of the corpses, though, which implies that Ishmael either didn't stop her or couldn't. And, well, the song that goes along with The End on the audiobooks and Tragic Treasury, "Shipwrecked," has a lot of lyrics about murdering crew and using bodies to fish for sharks.

And once again, there's the question of why Snicket wouldn't just say so-- and once again, as I said in the above section, it's possible that Friday, or any other islanders that may have survived, want to remain under the radar. Considering Friday's father was a known VFD volunteer, she'd be of particular interest to the organization, but after escaping the island I imagine that Friday would be pretty turned off cults. As well as this, if Ishmael were still alive and Friday escaped him, she probably wouldn't want him tracking her down.

So if she encountered Lemony and told her about Inky, she probably requested that he not mention she survive, to keep potential enemies at bay- or if she didn't think of it, he could have taken that initiative himself.

tl;dr - it's most likely that Friday survived to shore. Ishmael did not die of the Myclium at the very least. The other islanders are probably dead.